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October

 

OpenAI has booked revenue at an annualized rate of about $50b so far this year, according to public documents it has filed. Roughly $20b less than analysts & investors had projected in late Sept based on company info.

Revenue is key to gauge the growth of demand for AI products.

 

France’s inability to balance its budget is “degrading” its credit standing. The budget paralysis is likely to push the country’s borrowing costs higher, worsening the crisis, Vanguard pointed out.
Scope, recently downgraded the French government’s credit rating from AA- to A+.

 

On 30 Sep, value of the euro dipped below $1.1299, its lowest since May 2025, Reuters noted. The currency lost 2.5% of its value last month the largest monthly slide since July 2025.
Investors pulled back from euro-denominated assets as concerns grow and stock & bond prices sink.
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Loans on apartment buildings made in 2021 are in trouble. The delinquency rate among loans have been bundled into securities for investors – collateralized loan obligations – has risen sevenfold since Oct 2023 according to Morgan Stanley.

These loans are subject to US Fed rates.

 

The construction boom in AI data centers is shaping up to be the biggest bet in U.S. history made on an emerging technology, The WSJ reported.

From the beginning of 2025 through 2032, the industry is expected to invest $10.3t, according to calculations by Columbia University.

 

$4.3t in corporate bonds issued by non-financial businesses will mature in 2027 through 2031 which will test the financial strength of companies who sold the bonds in 2021 when interest rates were lowest.
Roughly $572b will mature next year, while $1.03t will come due in 2030.

Many companies pushed their due dates further into the future through refinancing previously, Reuters noted.

 
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About 12 million barrels of oil and two million barrels of refined products are transiting the Strait of Hormuz each day. Maintaining that flow is essential to avoiding a global oil shortage. However, producers and buyers are having trouble shipping it.

“Without it, you have that $200-a-barrel scenario so it’s important it continues,” Russell Hardy, CEO of Vitol, the world’s largest oil trader, told the Financial Times. The problem, he said, is “there’s not enough shipping to go around.”

 

Valuation multiple is a measure of how investors see a company’s future. The multiple is the price investors are willing to pay for each dollar a company earns. The collective multiple for the S&P’s 500 index has been sliding, even though the overall value has continued to rise.

 

The world’s credit market could see sharp swings as the surge in AI-related borrowing leaves the bond market “unusually concentrated,” private equity firm KKR warned in a 30 Sept analysis.

AI-related companies are expected to flood $8t into AI infrastructure before 2031.

That could leave 20% of the world’s investment-grade bond market, usually the safest, exposed to the risks of an industry now betting all its chips on an uncertain future.

 

The overall value of the U.S. stock market continued to reach new records in this year’s third quarter, with earnings among the Standard & Poor’s 500 companies again exceeding 25%.

Investors ignored the Iran War, persistent inflation, & the bond market’s flirtation with collapse.

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This year through August, China has brought in $158.8b worth of gold, more than 1,000 metric tons. That compares with 886 metric tons worth $96.5b in all of 2025.

The Central bank & private investors are purchasing gold as long-term wealth preservation strategy - the FT reported.

 

Rising bond yields have become a major concern to governments as interest payments eat at their budgets. Borrowing costs are rising, in part, because investors feel a growing concern about the sustainability of government budgets that keep increasing faster than revenues - IMF.

rising-bond-yields

 

This year through August, China has brought in $158.8b worth of gold, more than 1,000 metric tons. That compares with 886 metric tons worth $96.5b in all of 2025.

The Central bank & private investors are purchasing gold as long-term wealth preservation strategy - the FT reported.

 

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